Sabah's Losses due to Malaysia > 1 trillion RM

 

Grok

please revise using full petronas tax as well or any similar federal revenue that can be attributed to Sabah, with 42% contribution from Sabah petroleum or whatever available data. Make a reasonable assumption on sabah's petroleum contribution year by year.

Revised estimate incorporating full attributable PETRONAS / petroleum streams

No official year-by-year breakdown of every PETRONAS payment (PITA, dividends, export duties, cash payments, etc.) attributed specifically to Sabah exists in the public domain. The figures below therefore use the best available official and semi-official data plus transparent assumptions.

Key data anchors

2018–2024 upstream petroleum revenue (official Petronas figures cited in Parliament):

Sabah RM205.0 billion | Sarawak RM285.4 billion | Peninsular RM284.8 billion

→ Sabah share ≈ 26.4 % of national upstream petroleum revenue in this recent window.e37b3d

Malaymail

Recent production shares (2023 data): Sabah ≈ 41 % of Malaysia’s oil & condensate and ≈ 18 % of natural gas.

Reserves (2024): Sabah ≈ 19 % of total petroleum reserves, 32 % of oil reserves, 8 % of gas reserves.

PETRONAS cumulative payments to the federal government / nation since 1974: more than RM1.5 trillion (dividends + taxes + cash payments + other).

5 % cash payments (royalty equivalent) from Sabah production to the federal government and to the Sabah state government since 1976: each approximately RM23 billion.

Reasonable year-by-year petroleum contribution assumption

Because detailed historical production shares are incomplete, a conservative stepped assumption is used:

Period

Assumed Sabah share of national petroleum-related federal revenue

Rationale

1974–1989

12–18 %

Early fields more concentrated in Sarawak & Peninsular; Sabah production still ramping

1990–2009

20–25 %

Growing deep-water and offshore Sabah output

2010–2025

25–30 % (anchored at 26.4 % for 2018–2024)

Matches recent official upstream revenue split and higher oil share

Average weighted share across the whole post-1974 period under this schedule ≈ 22–25 %.

Revised cumulative shortfall ranges (principal, nominal)

A. Constitutional 40 % entitlement (Articles 112C/112D) under wider attribution

Narrow attribution (mainly direct local LHDN + Customs, excluding most PETRONAS streams): earlier public estimate ≈ RM136 billion principal.

Wider attribution that includes a 22–26 % share of PETRONAS-related federal receipts (PITA, dividends, export duties, etc.) proportional to production:

Principal shortfall rises to roughly RM250–400 billion.

(The exact figure depends on how much of the RM1.5 trillion cumulative PETRONAS contribution is treated as “derived from Sabah.” Using the 26.4 % recent share on the later, larger portion of the PETRONAS total produces the upper end of the range.)

With compound interest:

At 5 % (court-style arrears rate): ≈ RM300–500 billion present value.

At 10 % (devaluation + opportunity cost): the figure can exceed RM700 billion–RM1 trillion+, highly sensitive to the exact year of each shortfall.

B. Theoretical 1:1 per-capita federal expenditure counterfactual (including petroleum revenue effects)

Adding the larger petroleum-attributable revenue base increases the residual gap. Using the same residual-model ratios you supplied earlier (1.6–3.3 : 1) and compounding the cumulative shortfall at 10 % still produces a present-value opportunity cost comfortably in the RM1 trillion+ range, and higher once the fuller PETRONAS attribution is layered in.

Summary comparison (rounded ranges)

Concept

Principal (nominal)

With 5 % interest

With 10 % interest (illustrative)

40 % narrow attribution

~RM136 bn

~RM143 bn

Significantly higher

40 % wider (full PETRONAS attribution at 22–26 % share)

RM250–400 bn

RM300–500 bn

RM700 bn – RM1 tn+

Theoretical 1:1 per-capita spending

Several hundred bn

Higher

RM1 tn+

Important caveats

These are estimates, not audited claims. The federal government has not published the complete attribution series required for a definitive 40 % calculation under the wider reading.

The constitutional formula is 40 % of the increase above the 1963 baseline after deducting revenues already assigned to the state. Exact application remains the subject of negotiation and court processes.

The 1:1 calculation remains a counterfactual, not a legal entitlement.

The inclusion of a realistic share of PETRONAS streams materially raises the estimated cumulative shortfall relative to the earlier narrow estimate. The order of magnitude of the gap (hundreds of billions in principal, potentially over a trillion when opportunity cost is compounded at 10 %) is consistent with the scale of the documented service and infrastructure shortfalls in Sabah.